Y2K -- Y!

For those of you who se habla C, you can read that is as 'Y2K -- Why not'.

Now, like most prophets, I prefer to make my predictions after the fact. It increases your success rate dramatically. However, I'm going to take some chances here and make a prediction before the fact, where it will haunt me for the rest of my life. (Which, if I'm wrong, will be so short it won't matter.)

The prediction is this:Subject to some qualifiers ennumerated below (always qualify everything, they taught me at consultant school), the "Year 2000 Disaster" will be another in an endless series of "Apocalypse Not", a total non-event from the "End Of The World As We Know It" perspective.

Why? Read on...

First off, the qualifiers:I'm speaking almost entirely of the United States, here, not other countries which are a lot further behind the curve. I'm also speaking of direct effects, not economic repercussions due to failures in foreign countries or the effects of milennial panic. Lastly, I'm not claiming a '0 percent failure' rate. There will be bills missed, air traffic snarled, random weirdness of all sorts. Life will be...interesting...in those first few weeks.

But the lights will stay on over most of the country (to make this precise, let me state that 95% of America will have power on 1/3/2000. This allows a few days for the predicted domino effects to have knocked out the grid.). The supermarkets will have food. The stores will have merchandise. And if they don't, it will be due entirely or almost entirely to panic over the presumed failure of the system, not the failure itself. Which won't happen.

So why do I believe this? I'll give you the reasons.

I have often exhorted those who believe in God or Communism to put their money where their mouth is, and I shall not shirk from this duty. Come the end of the year 1999, barring some major change in my employment, lifestyle, or the like, I'll be right here, on the 16th floor of a building in the heart of San Francisco. If the power fails, if the welfare and social security systems collapse, if the grain trains stop running and the elevators crash, I will be dead in short order. Period. I'm betting my life I'm right, and my life isn't something I gamble with lightly.

For more fun, from a self-professed member of the 'Religious Right', check out The Gary North Is A Big Fat Idiot page.

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